The injury is hopefully mild, but with Olson, Mize, and Manning out, and Jack Flaherty presumably dealt soon, the Jackson Jobe era can begin.
The Detroit Tigers’ victory over the Toronto Blue Jays on Saturday extended their impressive July run. With 63 games remaining, they are just one game below.500 and only five games away from a wild card position. We should feel fairly terrific. Instead, Reese Olson left the game after two innings due to what was described as right shoulder pain. That might be anything from slight discomfort to a serious injury that kills his season. In any case, it is currently causing a significant issue for the company.
Casey Mize is already on the disabled list with a hamstring issue, and there is no news on when he will begin his rehabilitation assignment. Matt Manning, the logical pick for a call-up, was placed on the Triple-A disabled list on Friday due to a lat strain. Kenta Maeda is struggling to pitch, and there is little reason to believe he will be able to rejoin the rotation. So with Olson out, the Tigers are in a tough situation. It’s Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, who looks like he’ll be traded within the next 10 days, and rookie Keider Montero, who is still getting his bearings in the major leagues.
Let’s try to discover some solutions. As always, start with the 40-man roster.
Okay, we checked. There is nothing on the 40-man roster that can aid them in this situation. We’ve been cooked. This concludes the article.
In all honesty, there are no plug-and-play options remaining on the 40-man roster. The Tigers could try Tyler Holton, Beau Brieske, Alex Faedo, or—gasp—Joey Wentz, but they aren’t starting pitchers anymore and, at least in the short term, can’t do much more than give the Tigers some bulk outings in which they try to go three or four innings, get through the top of an opponent’s order twice, and then turn it over to the rest of the bullpen. That’s not tempting since it weakens an already terrible bullpen while putting a mediocre starting pitcher on the mound.
If the Tigers believe Mize will return soon and/or that Reese Olson’s injury isn’t too significant, that’s likely how they’ll handle it. Even yet, dealing Flaherty and leaving this rotation without perhaps the finest starting pitcher in the game is a daunting prospect. Especially with the team performing so well. Running out a number of long relievers and taking a battering in the coming weeks will be a difficult task following their current run.
So let’s continue. The Tigers have a number of players that might be designated for assignment without much loss. It’s also feasible that Kerry Carpenter will be placed on the 60-day injured list so they may add anybody they want in the short term, knowing they’ll probably move a player or two away in the near future.
Jackson Jobe
Let us proceed right to the clear best option. Top prospect RHP Jackson Jobe is baseball’s finest pitching prospect, has superior stuff than anyone on the Tigers’ staff save Skubal and possibly Flaherty, and has at least big league average command with 10 days till he turns 22. Six more no-hit innings on Saturday were not unexpected, nor was the ease with which Jobe mowed through the Binghamton Rumble Ponies order. Anyone who believes he isn’t ready for MLB yet hasn’t seen him pitch. If Jake Rogers or Carson Kelly set up in the middle and call the game, and Jobe throws with confidence, he’ll be OK.
The question is if this is the best option for his development. That must have some precedence. While Jobe appears to be in excellent shape, with major league-ready talent and command, determining his mental and emotional preparedness is more challenging. Since breaking out last year, Jobe’s sole competitor has been himself. He rarely gets into problems on an outing. There is no consistent flow of traffic, and there are only a few major pitches to be made. He’s too good to be gaining experience dealing with serious adversity from his opponents, who rarely even square up the baseball with authority against him. This calls for a promotion to Triple-A Toledo, since it’s grown tedious watching Jobe comfortably dispatch Double-A lineups. However, promoting him to the main leagues is a little difficult.
For the time being, perhaps advancing Jobe to Toledo and seeing how things go will be the best course of action. If he’s still cruising for the most part, he won’t learn much in the minors, thus it’s time to call him up. Personally, I believe Jobe will have no trouble in Triple-A. Also obvious to me is that Jobe and Olson’s timetables are in sync, thus Jobe could fit right in on regular rest.
Finally, it is up to the Tigers to determine if a little exposure to Triple-A hitters will benefit him or be a waste of innings when the big league club could really use his help. You don’t want him to come up, get shelled a couple of times, and possibly lose confidence, but that appears improbable for one, and secondly, he needs to be hit to improve the single aspect of his game that hasn’t been tested. It will happen eventually, so why not now?
Finally, the severity of the other starters’ injuries will determine the outcome. If the Tigers believe two of Mize, Manning, or Olson will be sidelined for a short time? Then, adding Jobe to the 40-man roster may not be the best decision until September, when he can get a taste of major league batters before heading into the offseason. However, with Flaherty on the trading block, there’s a strong possibility they’ll need a starting pitcher the rest of the way, and Jobe’s normal innings development should lead him to 110-115 innings after pitching 80 last season. This season, Jobe has thrown 35 2⁄3 innings. That would put Jobe on schedule to make 12 or 13 starts, each lasting about six innings, and finish the season in the rotation.
We’ll see what the Tigers believe, but the anticipated duration of these rotation injuries will probably influence whether or not the team decides to call up its ace prospect right now.
Finally, there may be a portion of you reading this thinking, “Oh, this is all hype; he can’t be that good.”
That’s just your shields against hope and disappointment speaking. Pay close attention to the player. Jackson Jobe is a monster already.
Ty Madden & Brant Hurter
Going into the season, these two prospects, along with Keider Montero, appeared to provide the Tigers with at least one viable starting option. So far, only Montero has taken advantage of the opportunity, while the right-handed, hard-throwing Madden and the command and control lefty Hurter, who has a nice slider and a solid sinker/changeup combo as weapons, have battled with the Toledo Mud Hens.
Of course, while he was throwing better than either for much of the year and struggled with the automated strike zone as much as batters, Montero was also not producing excellent numbers. Working with the Tigers, who have one of the best pitching coaching staffs in the game, two experienced defensive catchers, and a decent defensive outfield—not to mention a better park for a fly ball pitcher like Montero in home games—has undoubtedly benefited him. However, he has yet to put it together like Reese Olson did in comparable circumstances last year.
Things are likely to get worse for Madden and Hurter. Madden can throw his four-seam fastball at 98-99 mph and possesses a very decent slider. This combination makes him a formidable opponent for right-handed hitters. Despite developing a cutter, curveball, and splitter this season, Madden is still struggling and allowing a lot of home homers. If it was just the walks that were an issue, human umpires, major league catching, and game planning could all assist them overcome it. The home runs are most likely a product of the increased pressure to throw strikes, but the reality remains that Madden is getting hammered on a regular basis out there.
Madden’s overall ERA and FIP across 47 innings are 8.43 and 6.48, respectively. Following a strong start with the Double-A SeaWolves, where he had a 2.55 ERA with high strikeout, walk, and home run rates, he’s struggled at Triple-A. The splitter, which helped him learn left-handed hitting in Double-A, has been inconsistent in Toledo.
Looking at Madden’s splits, there is no comfort to be found. After battling with lefties for so long, right-handed hitters have crushed him this season. They have a.965 OPS against Madden, while lefties only have a.713 OPS. However, one of the reasons lefties aren’t hitting him is that he walks about 15% of them.
So Madden isn’t ready. He is older than Montero and will be added to the 40-man roster this offseason, but he appears to be more of a reliever. Possibly a really excellent one, but there’s little to suggest he’ll start in the majors right now. Given that he has stagnated as a prospect over the last year and a half and is still attempting to improve his split-changeup, training with Chris Fetter, Robin Lund, and Juan Nieves would be beneficial to him. Maybe they try it, but it’s hard to believe it will benefit the Tigers. For the time being, I will pass.
Hurter is in similar straits and lacks Madden’s power. As a result, he’s always been rated a full tier below than Madden, as a spot starter with extended relief potential rather than a future full-time rotation player. The big lefty has deception, a quality slider, and generally good command of his low 90’s sinker, but his changeup has yet to develop into a reliable weapon for him.
Hurter, on the other hand, throws a lot of strikes and gets a lot of ground balls, as opposed to Madden. Those two characteristics give him a far better chance of success right now. Hurter’s relatively low strikeout rate of 22.5% is only slightly lower than Madden’s. His 6.9 percent walk rate is far better than Madden’s 14.3 percent. The automatic ball-strike calling may have contributed, but Hurter has not been held back.
Finally, Hurter has a home run rate of 1.19 per nine innings, which is acceptable at the major league level. It will increase at the major league level if he does not improve, but Madden’s HR/9 is 2.30.
So calling up Brant Hurter appears to be the Tigers’ best option, leaving Jobe out. Hurter is 25, will be Rule 5 eligible this fall, and was expected to throw in the majors this season. He’s left-handed, and he’s talented enough that they’d have to add him to the 40-man roster anyway, so it’s time for him to have a look. With his command, the Tigers can assist in resolving some of the smaller concerns that remain. Madden still has a higher ceiling due to his strong fastball/slider combo, but he will continue to struggle unless he can put things together regularly. Hurter is currently more likely to throw strikes and keep the ball in the park.
Bryan Sammons, or Lael Lockhart Jr.
Veteran Sammons and 24-year-old Lockhart Jr. are two additional strong lefties in the Mud Hens rotation who could make a spot start or two. Both are low-powered, cunning lefties with a decent breaking ball and a quality offspeed fastball. Sammons gets a lot of whiffs with his changeup, and Lockhart Jr. learned a split-change with the Tigers. It’s still uneven, but he has feel for it and can split very well.
Lockhart Jr. gets a lot of whiffs. The slider and split-change can both produce a lot of whiffs, and despite throwing at 90-93 mph, Lockhart Jr.’s deception, quick arm, and riding movement will result in some whiffs. The heater is struck hard when his command is bad, but he is usually in decent control. He’s pitched at Double-A and Triple-A this season, and he’s consistently striking out about 30% of batters. He walked more hitters in Triple-A, but he has tremendous command. The ABS system has penalized him in a few starts. He does allow more home runs than Hurter, though.
In my opinion, the 26-year-old is past prospect level, and he could be a good fit for the Tigers as a spot starter. He’s another player with enough command that I believe the Tigers coaching staff could polish up a couple things, get Jake Rogers or Carson Kelly to haul in a few extra strikes for him, and Lockhart Jr. would probably do well.
The 29-year-old Sammons has kept the Mud Hens rotation together this season, but he doesn’t outperform Hurter or Lockhart Jr. He has enough experience to provide the Tigers a quick start in a pinch, but he does not appear to be a long-term major league alternative.
What is the plan?
Again, the appropriate selection is influenced by the severity of the injuries in the rotation. We can’t really predict how those will proceed. It’s entirely likely that the Tigers will require two, if not three, starters if Flaherty is traded and all of the rotation injuries last until August. Unfortunately, they should have won more games while everyone was well in April and May. So, perhaps they will claim someone. Perhaps they’ll make a minor move for starting depth. It’s difficult to predict exactly what they should do until there are some injury reports. However, depending on the present roster, these are the fundamental options.
If Mize is about to begin rehab, or one of Olson’s or Manning’s injuries is modest enough to keep them out for a few weeks, the shorter-term possibilities may prevail. They could call up Hurter and Lockhart, with the latter paired with Kenta Maeda, and be fine for a few weeks.
I’d advise against trying to cobble this together from the present bullpen. If the bullpen was better, this would have been much simpler from the start. Weakening it more, just putting Brieske, Wentz, and Faedo in the rotation doesn’t make much sense. They might get through one turn of the rotation that way, but the Tigers have eleven straight games from the 21st to the 30th, with the Guardians, Twins, and Guardians all coming up. With the club showing real signs of life, will the Tigers simply field a bunch of depth players against division rivals? Or would you contact Jackson Jobe and try to start a fire and shove their faces in?
What if I make the decisions? Jobe’s next start will be against the Louisville Bats in Toledo on Thursday, if Jack Flaherty is traded on or near the deadline, though it might happen sooner. From there, he’s available if needed in Detroit on Tuesday, July 30 against the Cleveland Guardians. He’s ready, and it would boost fan confidence in the future, especially if they could add a major league ready bat to play at the deadline by dealing Flaherty.
Pitchers are not long-lasting items to be utilized when it is most convenient and beneficial. They’re excellent fruit that should be consumed while still ripe to avoid spoiling. Jackson Jobe still has a lot to learn. It’s just tough to claim that he’ll learn any of it while cruising past minor league lineups with ease. Triple-A is unlikely to slow him down significantly either. The Tigers need him, and he’s better prepared to make the transition right now than any pitching prospect since Justin Verlander in the summer of 2005. If you care about service time, just extend him now, but there’s no way they can pretend Jobe isn’t one of their three best starting possibilities in 2025. So get on with it already.
For the time being, calling up Brent Hurter appears to be the natural decision. Keider Montero will get a long look now, while Skubal and Flaherty will likely hold down the top of the rotation for at least one or two more starts. I believe Skubal’s odds of being traded are roughly 2%. In the short term, they may have to build something around a Maeda-Wentz combination. If they’re not willing to use Joey Wentz in that manner, it’s unclear what he’s still doing on the club. Lockhart Jr.’s opportunity makes more sense to me.
And if Flaherty is traded as expected, the Jackson Jobe era will begin. When healthy, your rotation includes Skubal, Olson, Mize, and Jobe, with several options for a fifth starter. He’s reached the stage where the Tigers can let his promotion run its course as the best pitching prospect in Triple-A. Move him up, and don’t be afraid to take action when necessary. Jobe has an aim of reaching the main leagues this season. The Tigers should be assisting their aspiring future ace in achieving his ambitions, especially if their need is as acute as it appears right now.