Here are five quick thoughts on Boston’s pursuit of Arenado, with MLB.com’s John Denton reporting that the Cardinals have re-engaged the Red Sox, along with other clubs, on Arenado in recent days:
1. Unlike with Bregman, the Red Sox seem have a good amount of leverage when it comes to Arenado.
Even if Bregman wants to come to Boston, he’s not going to do so if they don’t present him (and his agent, Scott Boras) with the best deal. If the Sox remain unwilling to give Bregman more than four years (as The Boston Globe reported was the case on Jan. 25), then it’s hard to envision them landing him with the Cubs, Blue Jays and Tigers seemingly willing to present longer offers and the Astros — even if a “long shot” — potentially lying in the weeds.
Bregman has his options. More options, it would seem, than the Cardinals do when it comes to Arenado. St. Louis president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has been abundantly clear that the team badly wants to move the eight-time All-Star to clear salary for 2025, and in the bigger picture, present a clean slate for Chaim Bloom (remember him?) who will take over in 2026.
The Cardinals don’t want Arenado on their roster come Opening Day and they’re motivated to find a partner. That process has been complicated by Arenado’s no-trade clause and the fact he — after vetoing a trade to Houston in December — clearly isn’t just going to go anywhere. His market is limited, and that’s his choice. That he has been screaming from the rooftops that he wants to come to Boston hurts the Cardinals’ leverage and helps Boston, especially this late in the game when other preferred destinations (Yankees? Dodgers?) seem less likely.
That leverage would seem to create a real path for Craig Breslow to wait out Arenado’s market and get a more palatable deal as the Cardinals begin to get desperate. It seems that’s what the Sox are doing.
2. At this point, it’s hard to see an Arenado trade followed by a deal involving Triston Casas.
Previously, an Arenado addition seemed to represent one part of a three-pronged plan that would involve moving Rafael Devers to first base and trading Triston Casas. It was a reasonable take to think that series of moves would make the Red Sox worse, not better
Now, with rosters largely set across the league, it’s even harder to envision all those pieces fitting together. The Red Sox, who have tried, at times, to move Casas, probably aren’t going to get what they’re looking for at this late stage. That means the path to Arenado is different, but arguably cleaner: He’d take over at third base, Devers would become something close to the full-time designated hitter and Masataka Yoshida would be in limbo.
It’s not a perfect plan by any means, as the Yoshida issue would not be an easy one to solve. But it does make a lot of sense for the Sox in their attempt to field a more functional roster. Replacing Devers with Arenado at third would greatly improve the infield defense, which is needed. Getting Devers off his feet, even if he’s against the idea, would greatly decrease the amount of wear and tear on his body and prevent him from breaking down late in the season like he has in recent years. The quartet of Devers, Casas, Arenado and Trevor Story in the middle of the lineup would be one with upside.
It’s clear trading Yoshida, who’s owed $55.8 million over the next three years (and counts as an $18 million CBT hit) will not be easy to accomplish. He’s not without value, as he was elite against right-handed starters for a long stretch last season. But a big-market team like the Red Sox should be willing to deal with some sunk costs, if that’s what it takes to compete. And the fact he’s coming off a shoulder injury might help Boston slow-play things early in the year when it comes to his future.
3. It shouldn’t be a surprise that mid-range prospects like Blaze Jordan are being mentioned in rumors.
While some people see a big name like Arenado’s and expect the Cardinals to require a big-name prospect to get a deal done, that’s simply not the case. St. Louis’ motivation for entertaining trades involving him is financially-motivated and that should bear out in negotiations.
Teams talking to the Cards about Arenado are working with a sliding scale when it comes to the $64 million he’s owed over the next three seasons. If you take on more money, you don’t have to give up much in the way of prospect capital. Less of a financial commitment means more prospect value. The Cardinals, again, are financially motivated here. That means it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the names surfacing in rumors are more at the level of someone like Blaze Jordan (ranked No. 27 in the system by SoxProspects) than someone in the top 10. The Red Sox have the financial flexibility to take on a large portion of Arenado’s deal and shouldn’t hesitate to do so.
4. An Arenado addition doesn’t muck up the future of the team’s top prospects.
Everyone knows Bregman would help the 2025 Red Sox. But the internal concern about adding him has to do with blocking top prospect Kristian Campbell, No such issue would exist if Arenado was acquired.
The Red Sox could move forward with Arenado at third, Devers as their DH and Casas at first base for the three years remaining on Arenado’s contract without disrupting anything related to the development of Campbell, Marcelo Mayer or Roman Anthony. That’s no small thing in the attempt to get more functional.
5. Arenado’s struggles against lefties are a real concern.
Why do the Red Sox need a righty bat in the first place? Because they’re lefty-heavy in the lineup and were putrid (17-26, .395) against left-handed starters last year. Adding Arenado would not help that problem
Arenado’s swing fits Fenway and he’d benefit from playing 81 games in front of the Green Monster, but his reverse splits are a real cause for concern. In 2024, he hit just .235 with five homers and a .646 OPS in 154 plate appearances against lefties. The year before, it was a .220 average and .662 OPS. For his career, and as recently as 2022, he’s been better (.928 career OPS) against left-handers but the drop-off in the last two seasons has been steep and rather concerning. For someone who turns 34 in April, it’s an issue that should give the Red Sox some pause.
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